Heavy Vehicle Production Decline in Brazil
Despite an improved demand outlook, the production of heavy vehicles is expected to take a significant hit this year. The National Association of Automotive Vehicle Manufacturers (Anfavea) estimates that Brazilian automakers will produce around 127 thousand trucks and buses. This is a steep decline of 34.2% compared to 2022, which is significantly worse than the previously anticipated reduction of 20.4%. This downward revision of heavy vehicle production is primarily due to a sharp decrease in exports.
Surge in China’s HD & MD Truck Sales
In contrast, China’s heavy-duty (HD) and medium-duty (MD) truck sales have seen a remarkable increase. In September alone, the total sales for HD and MD trucks reached 95.5K units, marking a 64.0% growth. Overall, China’s automobile industry witnessed a total sales volume of 2.9M units in September, a 9.5% increase year-on-year. The sales volume of passenger vehicles stood at 2.5M units, marking a 6.6% growth. The truck sales volume, including HD, MD, and light-duty (LD) trucks, rose by 36.5% to 326K units. Furthermore, new energy vehicle (NEV) sales volume was 904K units, accounting for 31.6% of total vehicle sales volume, marking an increase of 27.7% YoY.
Commercial Vehicle Growth in India
The commercial vehicle (CV) segment in India is also experiencing a growth spurt. Key CV manufacturers such as Ashok Leyland Ltd, Tata Motors Ltd, and VE Commercial Vehicles Ltd reported both year-on-year and month-on-month growth in their wholesale volumes. While the performance of two-wheelers, tractors, and passenger vehicles was mixed, CV manufacturers are expected to post better results for the September quarter (Q2FY24). For instance, Ashok Leyland’s Q2 volume saw a 10% YoY increase and a 21% sequential rise to 49,846 units. This could contribute to an improved margin, building on their better-than-expected EBITDA margin of 10% in Q1.
In conclusion, while Brazil faces challenges in heavy vehicle production, China and India are experiencing growth in their respective truck and commercial vehicle markets. These trends provide valuable insights into the global automotive industry’s dynamics and potential future directions.